Forecast & Outlook

Assumptions and projected figures for Q1‑2025 based on Q4‑2024 actuals and management guidance.

Net Sales Forecast

EBITDA Margin Target

Assumptions

• Demand normalises after the holiday peak; net sales are expected to decline 4–6 % QoQ in Q1‑25, still +18–22 % YoY.
• List prices remain unchanged; promotions return to Q3 intensity for CIE, BBA and LTC, while CPS price fences continue.
• Efficiency programmes deliver: CIE micro‑stops –10 % downtime (+~0.4pp gross margin); BBA batch planning –9 % cold‑chain unit cost by March.
• SIC rebates shift to ROAS‑linked contracts, halving non‑ROI rebates.
• One‑off legal, rent and marketing costs drop out; EBITDA margin is targeted at 19–21 %.
• Risks: pork input prices and export demand volatility are mitigated by hedges and weekly S&OP reviews.